Key Takeaways
- Census reported 82,162 U.S. employer establishments in NAICS 624410 for 2023; this is not a count of licensed, private, or saleable centers.
- Child Care Aware's 2025 analysis reported declining center supply in 26 of 43 states with complete data and a one-percent combined decline; state coverage limits the conclusion.
- Family employment supports demand, while affordability and staffing constrain the number of usable, financeable seats.
- BLS now reports May 2025 childcare-worker wages and a 2025–2035 employment projection; local recruiting evidence controls underwriting.
- No transparent public dataset supports a universal national occupancy, total-labor, margin, turnover, sale-multiple, or value-per-slot benchmark across child care models.
Scope and method
This report prioritizes U.S. government data, federal regulatory materials, recognized national research with disclosed methods, and public-company filings for named-operator facts. It distinguishes publication date from reference year. It does not combine datasets whose units differ, and it marks evidence gaps rather than filling them with broker folklore.
The principal units are company, employer establishment, licensed program, licensed capacity, staffed capacity, enrolled child, paid full-time-equivalent schedule, attendance, revenue, and transaction. A company can own many establishments. A licensed program can have no paid employees or can be tax-exempt. Licensed capacity can exceed staffed seats. A child can attend part time. A listing is not a transaction.
Figures should be refreshed from their links before a live valuation or offering. National releases lag current operations, and federal summaries do not replace state licensing, subsidy, pre-K, or local land-use authority. The report's “current as of” date describes the research pass, not the reference period of every statistic.
| Evidence | Latest period used | Unit | Safe interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census County Business Patterns | 2023 | Employer establishment | Size and geography of employer industry |
| Child Care Aware supply | 2025 | Licensed provider series in complete states | Direction with coverage caveat |
| Child Care Aware price | 2025 publication | Annual price estimate | National affordability context |
| BLS families | 2025 | Family employment estimate | Work-related demand context |
| BLS childcare workers | May 2025 / 2025–2035 | Occupation | National wage and replacement openings |
| NIEER preschool | 2023–2024 school year | State-funded enrollment | Public pre-K scale, not local effect |
Employer establishments: 82,162, with limits
The Census 2023 County Business Patterns profile for NAICS 624410 reports 82,162 employer establishments. County Business Patterns covers businesses with paid employees and provides geographic and industry detail. The NAICS category includes establishments primarily engaged in child care and early learning services as defined by Census.
This count is not the number of child care companies because one company can operate multiple locations. It is not the number of licensed centers because state regulation and Census classification use different systems. It includes taxable and tax-exempt employer establishments, omits nonemployers, and does not identify franchise, private-equity, nonprofit, public, or independent ownership consistently.
Use CBP to understand employer presence and compare consistent geography and years. Do not describe 82,162 as businesses for sale, licensed centers, or available providers. For a market, retrieve current state licensing records and then distinguish provider status, type, capacity, and age approval.
Licensed supply changed unevenly in 2025
Child Care Aware of America's 2025 Price & Supply analysis reports that among states with complete data, center supply fell in 26 of 43 states and the combined national change was negative one percent. Its family child care series reported a positive combined change but increases in only seven of 42 complete-data states. Coverage and definitions matter.
The prior 2024 analysis found 92,550 licensed centers in 40 states with complete data, up from 84,592 in those states in 2020, while family child care showed a different longer-term direction. These are fixed-state comparisons, not full national totals. They also do not reveal staffed seats, enrollment, financial health, or sale readiness.
For a transaction, request the state provider export and preserve retrieval date. Count centers and family homes separately. Review current status, capacity, age, complaints, inspections, and changes. A statewide provider decline can improve a center's position, reflect population decline, or coexist with severe labor constraints. Local explanation is required.
Family employment sustains need
BLS's 2025 Employment Characteristics of Families release reports that 91.2 percent of families with their own children under age six had at least one employed parent. Among married-couple families with children under six, 62.2 percent had both parents employed. Labor-force participation was 68.0 percent for mothers and 95.3 percent for fathers with children under six.
BLS warns that 2025 annual estimates are eleven-month averages because October data were not collected during the federal shutdown. The figures are national and do not identify use of paid centers, schedule, price, or local demand. They support the statement that work and child care are closely connected, not that every licensed seat has a paying family.
Local demand analysis should add children by age, parent work and commute, household income, current providers, public programs, housing, and the center's own inquiry and conversion data. Demographics and site selection explains how those layers fit.
Price reached a broad national estimate, not a local quote
Child Care Aware's 2025 analysis reports a $13,184 national average annual child care price based on 47 states and an average of three national estimation methods. This is a broad affordability measure. It does not represent one age, setting, schedule, state, or center.
The Department of Labor National Database of Childcare Prices offers county-level estimates by age and care setting from state market-rate surveys, with data through 2022 in the current technical release. State survey methods and reference periods vary. Child Care Aware's more detailed state work also separates ages and care types.
For underwriting, compute realized revenue from child-level schedules, rates, discounts, subsidy, copays, fees, credits, refunds, and bad debt. Compare it with current local age-specific evidence. A national average should not be entered into a center forecast or used to support a tuition increase.
Workforce: replacement demand persists
BLS's Occupational Outlook Handbook now reports a May 2025 median hourly wage of $16.82 for childcare workers nationally and $16.43 in child day care services. It projects employment to decline two percent from 2025 to 2035 while projecting approximately 150,300 openings per year, all attributed to workers transferring occupations or leaving the labor force.
The coexistence of projected decline and many openings is important: replacement demand can remain large even without net job growth. National medians do not establish the wage required for a qualified teacher or director in a specific metro. State requirements, benefits, schedule, competition, and role mix matter.
In a center, labor is also capacity. Ratios and group-size rules determine required adults, while credentials, breaks, opening hours, leave, and vacancies determine usable seats. Analyze payroll and staffing grids together. A low labor expense caused by closed rooms or unpaid owner coverage is not necessarily efficient.
Public pre-K is material and locally variable
NIEER's State of Preschool 2024 national profile reports 1,751,109 children enrolled across 64 state-funded programs in 44 states and the District of Columbia for the 2023–2024 school year. Programs differ in eligibility, hours, calendar, quality standards, teacher qualifications, and use of private providers.
Public pre-K can displace private-pay preschool, purchase seats through mixed delivery, create wraparound demand, or alter staff competition. The outcome must be analyzed by named state program, local district rollout, child cohort, and classroom. National enrollment does not support a one-directional conclusion.
Transaction diligence should review contracts, applications, revenue, staffing, data requirements, monitoring, assignment or change of control, payment, and renewals separately from licensing and subsidy. Universal pre-K and owners provides the decision model.
Federal relief ended, with lasting state changes
GAO reports that Congress appropriated more than $52 billion in supplemental child care funding in fiscal years 2020 and 2021. Stabilization funds generally had to be spent by September 30, 2023 and remaining supplemental funds by September 30, 2024. Selected states used funds for provider viability, workforce, subsidy, technology, and quality.
GAO did not establish a national observed closure count caused by expiration. Forecasts of a funding cliff published before deadlines should not be restated later as observed results. States also made different choices, and some created or retained programs through other funding.
In financial diligence, identify every relief, stabilization, wage supplement, grant, or temporary rate. Determine award period, restrictions, cash date, recognized revenue, related expense, recapture, and continuation. Remove nonrecurring support from normalized earnings consistently and include costs the buyer must continue.
CCDF policy changed in 2026
The May 12, 2026 HHS final rule rescinded several mandates from the 2024 CCDF rule, including federal requirements for a seven-percent family-copayment cap, prospective payment, payment based on authorized enrollment, and certain grants or contracts. The rule allowed states to maintain policies, and other federal requirements remained.
The change does not tell a provider how its state pays today. Current state plans, manuals, rates, authorizations, provider agreements, and remittances control. A transaction should reconcile each child and service period through claim, copay, payment, denial, recoupment, and bank deposit.
Policy volatility also affects working capital. If a state changes payment timing, absence treatment, copays, or rates, the center may carry more cash need even when annual revenue appears stable. Date every subsidy conclusion and recheck it before closing.
Market structure includes scaled and independent operators
Public filings by Bright Horizons and KinderCare document large center networks and different service models. Census and licensing counts show a much broader provider base. Together, the evidence supports a market with scaled operators and many other organizations.
No authoritative current dataset found in this research classifies the entire sector by private-equity, founder, franchise, nonprofit, government, employer-sponsored, family-home, and independent ownership. Therefore, a national private-equity share should not be published without a transparent source.
For sellers, buyer demand is specific to geography, size, management, real estate, age mix, compliance, and integration. For buyers, a fragmented market does not make every add-on attractive. Private equity and platforms explains the fit analysis.
Transaction multiples remain an evidence gap
No transparent public national source reviewed supports representative closed child care-center multiples by model, size, geography, earnings basis, and terms. Marketplace reports can combine categories; listings contain asking prices; private deal terms can omit seller notes, earn-outs, real estate, working capital, and normalized earnings definitions.
Do not respond to this gap with a precise universal range. Value a center from normalized transferable SDE or EBITDA as appropriate, supported assets, and real estate separately where included. Then assess licensing, staffing, director stability, enrollment, collections, payer mix, lease, facility, capital, and buyer depth.
Comparable transactions require closed status, date, geography, model, scale, earnings definition, normalization, included assets, real estate, working capital, and deal terms. If those fields are missing, label the evidence as directional. Daycare SDE and EBITDA multiples sets the limits.
The metrics not supported nationally
The current public evidence did not establish universal representative benchmarks across child care models for occupancy, fully loaded labor percentage, rent percentage, EBITDA margin, teacher turnover, revenue per licensed slot, value per enrolled child, or model-specific transaction multiple. Each suffers from incompatible definitions or missing representative samples.
That does not make the metrics useless. It changes where they come from. Calculate subject occupancy with explicit licensed and staffed denominators. Calculate fully loaded labor from payroll, benefits, owner replacement, and contractors. Calculate rent from the lease. Calculate turnover from payroll rosters. Use classroom and monthly history.
An honest report distinguishes unavailable from zero. Do not insert an estimate simply because a model requires a field. State the publication gate: a defined cohort, period, sample, numerator, denominator, and source.
Convert this report into diligence
For a seller, preserve monthly enrollment by classroom, billing and collections, payroll and staffing, subsidy, inspection records, lease, facility work, leadership, and owner duties. Connect every market claim to center evidence. A statement that supply is tight is weaker than a roster showing durable paid enrollment and qualified inquiries.
For a buyer, use national facts to set questions, local data to establish context, and subject records to underwrite. Build base, downside, and operational upside cases. Every upside needs action, cost, approval, staff, family demand, and timing. Every downside should have an observable mechanism.
Refresh the report's sources and current rules before reliance. The cited national data span reference years because official releases lag. Current does not mean same-year. Maintain a source register with URL, retrieval, publication date, data period, definition, and limitations.
Frequently asked questions
How many child care centers are in the United States?
The answer depends on definition. Census counted 82,162 employer establishments in NAICS 624410 for 2023, while licensing compilations count regulated programs and use different state coverage. Neither equals saleable private centers, and both differ from companies, licensed capacity, staffed seats, and nonemployer family providers. Always name the series and year.
What is the latest national child care price?
Child Care Aware's 2025 analysis reported a $13,184 national average annual price based on 47 states and three estimation methods. It is an affordability indicator, not a quote for one center. Age, setting, schedule, state, survey year, discounts, subsidy, and collection determine the relevant local and realized amount.
Is child care demand recession-proof?
No business is recession-proof. Parental employment and essential care needs support demand, but household affordability, employment loss, migration, public programs, tuition, staffing, and center reputation affect enrollment and collections. Underwrite the subject center's historical response and downside liquidity rather than relying on an essential-service label.
Are daycare sale multiples rising?
No current transparent national dataset was found that supports a trend for comparable closed child care-center multiples across model, size, geography, earnings definition, and deal terms. Asking listings and mixed education categories are insufficient. Use verified closed evidence with explicit scope and value the center from normalized transferable earnings and risks.
What national data matter most to a child care buyer?
National data frame labor, family employment, supply, price, public pre-K, subsidy, and policy questions. Local licensing, population, price, workforce, public programs, and property evidence narrow the market. The decisive evidence remains the center's enrollment, billing, collections, payroll, staffing, inspections, contracts, lease, capital needs, and management.
How often should this market report be refreshed?
Refresh each source when its next release appears and recheck time-sensitive federal and state rules before using the report in a transaction. Record data year and retrieval date separately. Local licensing, subsidy, pre-K, wage, provider, and real-estate evidence may require more frequent updates than annual national statistics.